National ammo shortage - where is it going

[ShifterBits]

This is history in the making. The other day I was in a Cabelas and they were out of 22lr. Never seen that before.

So where is it all going?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...XgsvVdhqA&NR=1

[gandog56]

Re: National ammo shortage - where is it going

Welcome to Obama induced panic buying/hoarding.

NUMBER TWO! This time I was not caught unawares, I restocked up on all ammo and reloading supplies in November!

[billt]

Re: National ammo shortage - where is it going

This isn't all that difficult to figure out. This type of panic buying feeds off itself. People are buying ammunition in amounts they never would have in the past because they're afraid. Of what they have no idea. Others are buying, so they are too.

They hear panic talk at the range and bar about how hard ammo is to find. So when they do find it, they buy it. Many have no intentions of shooting it, they just figure they better buy it. Get several million gun owners behaving this way, and it's not that hard to have a major shortage. All this nonsense about "the government buying it all up" is just that, nonsense.

The government always has contracts for large amounts of ammunition for all of it's agencies. These contracts have spread out delivery dates over years. They're not "buying it all up". Add in all of the fear of gun and magazine bans, along with ammunition limits, and you have put the icing on the cake for a major shortage. This will last until the folks run out of money, which won't take much longer. Then look for one of the biggest gun and ammunition gluts we've ever seen.

Remember what happened a year after Hussein was elected. There were AR's and semi auto weapons everywhere. All at terrific prices. This will be worse, (or better depending how you look at it). Especially if all of this current legislation fails. Which appears to be more certain every day. About the only thing that will distract all of it would be another high body count school shooting. Then all bets are off.

[thirty-thirty]

Re: National ammo shortage - where is it going

I don't think the major ammo manufacturers are at maximum capacity at all. They might say they are, but they missed a great opportunity to make money. I don't think making money is their objective.

[billt]

Re: National ammo shortage - where is it going

I don't think the major ammo manufacturers are at maximum capacity at all. They might say they are, but they missed a great opportunity to make money. I don't think making money is their objective.

What is, losing it?

[thirty-thirty]

Re: National ammo shortage - where is it going

What is, losing it?

The objective is gun control.

[billt]

Re: National ammo shortage - where is it going

The objective is gun control.

So the ammo companies are holding back production because they want gun control? Why is everything a conspiracy theory with you? And I mean everything. Do you know how ridiculous you sound when you continually post this kind of $h!t? That is the most foolish thing I've ever heard. [img][/img]

[thirty-thirty]

Re: National ammo shortage - where is it going

So the ammo companies are holding back production because they want gun control? Why is everything a conspiracy theory with you? And I mean everything. Do you know how ridiculous you sound when you continually post this kind of $h!t? That is the most foolish thing I've ever heard. [img][/img]

If you know how the Federal Reserve works, you know money is no object to those who issue it out of thin air. Just like the gun manufacturers, many of the ammo companies have been bought out.

It makes perfect strategic sense to ban guns by taking over the companies who produce them and ammo.

[jefferson101]

Re: National ammo shortage - where is it going

Then again, it could be that there is just not enough surplus capacity to handle the additional demand.

I seem to recall seeing somewhere that if all the
Domestic manufacturers of .22LR ammo were to run 24/7, they could produce about 3 billion rounds a year. Distribute that out around the Country, and it's 60 million rounds/State/year, or a million rounds and change per State per week.

Or, to put it more logically than by State, if you have 5000 ammunition sales outlets in the country, that's 12,000 rounds per sales outlet per month, or 24 bricks. Per month.



First off, the producers cannot run 24/7/365 anyway.
They have to do maintenance and whatnot every so often, and they will probably shut down for major Holidays.

Second, there are a lot more than 5000 places to buy ammo in the Country.

Such being the case, when everyone and his cousin Bubba decide to go buy a couple thousand rounds of .22LR "just in case", it's going to get scarce fast.

The same thing applies to every other caliber. I don't know about everyone else around here, but a whole lot of the folks I know who shoot don't habitually keep a huge stock of ammo around the way that most of us do. They have 50 to 100 rounds in hand, if that many, and go buy some when they are going to go shooting.

If you figure there were 5 million folks like that out there who suddenly decided (after Sandy Hook) that they'd best go buy up 500 rounds or more for their AR, and 200 or so for their handgun, and a couple of bricks of .22LR? Yeah. All of a sudden it's all gone from the shelves.

It will come around, but it's going to take a while. I predicted earlier somewhere around here that by August or September things would start getting back to normal. I'm standing by that.

[thirty-thirty]

Re: National ammo shortage - where is it going

OK, I'll put myself in their boots. Let's say I'm an ammo manufacturer. I'll admit I don't know much about manufacturing.
24 hours a day is 3 shifts at 8 hours a day.

Let's say this is still 2007 and I have one shift working. If I ever had more than one shift working, I certianly would be inclined to invest in more equipment to increase capacity. I would have done this long ago. With the increase in ammo sales over the last few years, it would have been pretty evident that it would pay off. I would have doubled capacity with the new equipment and still be working one shift.

Now there is this guy Obama who is running for president. If he gets elected ammo sales will surge. I remember when Clintoon got elected and what happened then. I'm gonna be ready for it.

Now that I have the equipment to double capacity while working one shift, if ever there is a surge in sales, I'll work my crews 3 shifts, thus producing 6 times as much ammo as I was last year.

Granted I'm ignorant about manufacturing businesses, but what were Federal Remington and Winchester execs thinking about in the last few years?

[jefferson101]

Re: National ammo shortage - where is it going

OK, I'll put myself in their boots. Let's say I'm an ammo manufacturer. I'll admit I don't know much about manufacturing.
24 hours a day is 3 shifts at 8 hours a day.

Let's say this is still 2007 and I have one shift working. If I ever had more than one shift working, I certianly would be inclined to invest in more equipment to increase capacity. I would have done this long ago. With the increase in ammo sales over the last few years, it would have been pretty evident that it would pay off. I would have doubled capacity with the new equipment and still be working one shift.

Now there is this guy Obama who is running for president. If he gets elected ammo sales will surge. I remember when Clintoon got elected and what happened then. I'm gonna be ready for it.

Now that I have the equipment to double capacity while working one shift, if ever there is a surge in sales, I'll work my crews 3 shifts, thus producing 6 times as much ammo as I was last year.

Granted I'm ignorant about manufacturing businesses, but what were Federal Remington and Winchester execs thinking about in the last few years?

I do work in manufacturing, and you don't add capacity if you are only running one or two shifts. You already have that very expensive equipment that is sitting idle for 8 or 16 hours a day. You add a shift or two to the operation first. You might even start operating six or seven days a week first.

You don't add that kind of equipment overnight, either. It probably takes a minimum of 12 to 18 months to get the decision made to buy it, get it quoted and ordered, then built and installed.

And it's expensive. If you jump onto additional equipment and the additional demand proves to be a bubble, you are going to lose a lot of money. Businesses don't make decisions that could cost them most of their profit margin for several years if they are wrong without some serious evidence that it will actually work out for them.

I promise you that if Federal, Remington, Winchester, CCI, and anyone else in the ammo business could produce more, they would be doing so. Being able to sell everything you can make and having people screaming for more is the dream of every manufacturing Plant Manager in the world. They are doing everything they can to get more onto the loading docks.

[thirty-thirty]

Re: National ammo shortage - where is it going

I promise you that if Federal, Remington, Winchester, CCI, and anyone else in the ammo business could produce more, they would be doing so. Being able to sell everything you can make and having people screaming for more is the dream of every manufacturing Plant Manager in the world.

This is only true if the sole motivator is profit.

OK. Suppose you're working 2 shifts, 40 hours a week each. By increasing to 3 shifts plus weekends, you increase production 144% minus down time.

I doubt demand for ammo is up much more than that.

Now here's another angle. suppose they are at maximum possible production and most of it is going to federal agencies. Put yourself in their boots. You see where all this is going.
You see that they're trying to divert ammo to the public sector to prevent the private sector from getting it. What is the future in this for you, the ammo manufacturer? Would you remain silent and sell most of your product to a temporary customer? You know they plan to do this only until they get the right Bolshevik laws passed, then you have no business anymore.

If I were in their shoes I would be screaming bloody murder and selling only to the private sector....unless I was in with the Bolsheviks.

[billt]

Re: National ammo shortage - where is it going

Now here's another angle. suppose they are at maximum possible production and most of it is going to federal agencies. Put yourself in their boots. You see where all this is going.
You see that they're trying to divert ammo to the public sector to prevent the private sector from getting it. What is the future in this for you, the ammo manufacturer? Would you remain silent and sell most of your product to a temporary customer? You know they plan to do this only until they get the right Bolshevik laws passed, then you have no business anymore.

If I were in their shoes I would be screaming bloody murder and selling only to the private sector....unless I was in with the Bolsheviks.

[jefferson101]

Re: National ammo shortage - where is it going

This is only true if the sole motivator is profit.

OK. Suppose you're working 2 shifts, 40 hours a week each. By increasing to 3 shifts plus weekends, you increase production 144% minus down time.

I doubt demand for ammo is up much more than that.

Now here's another angle. suppose they are at maximum possible production and most of it is going to federal agencies. Put yourself in their boots. You see where all this is going.
You see that they're trying to divert ammo to the public sector to prevent the private sector from getting it. What is the future in this for you, the ammo manufacturer? Would you remain silent and sell most of your product to a temporary customer? You know they plan to do this only until they get the right Bolshevik laws passed, then you have no business anymore.

If I were in their shoes I would be screaming bloody murder and selling only to the private sector....unless I was in with the Bolsheviks.

The only glaring hole in all that is the fact that .22LR is what is the shortest, or at least it seems that way to me.

Equipment that manufactures .22LR is not going to be changed over to make another caliber. It's dedicated strictly to that one round. Unless the .Gov has suddenly started snatching up vast quantities of .22, the shortage is caused by expansion of the civilian market.

[billt]

Re: National ammo shortage - where is it going

The only glaring hole in all that is the fact that .22LR is what is the shortest, or at least it seems that way to me.

Equipment that manufactures .22LR is not going to be changed over to make another caliber. It's dedicated strictly to that one round. Unless the .Gov has suddenly started snatching up vast quantities of .22, the shortage is caused by expansion of the civilian market.

Excellent point. To think this is some type of government conspiracy is asinine. Ammunition manufacturers could not sustain themselves with government contracts alone, any more than gun companies could. Colt, FN, and Lake City supply most of what the government requires for military small arms and ammunition. Beretta would go broke if they had to survive on government M-9 sales alone. They existed for 400 years before the United States government came along and wanted a few M-9's from them. Not to mention consumer based ammo and component companies like Nosler, Barnes, Sierra, Hornady, Bufflao Bore, Cor-Bon, and about 100 others I'm forgetting at the moment.

Most gun companies like Marlin, Browning, and Weatherby are 100% consumer based and driven. People need to stop seeing black helicopters in their coffee every morning.